Arshiya Shah, Department of Political Science
The Logic of Borderland Unrest: Colonial Borders, Postcolonial Governance, and the Transnational Dynamics of Violence and Unrest
Abstract:
Colonial borders are often blamed for postcolonial conflict, yet many artificial boundaries remain peaceful while others become enduring hotspots of violence. This paper argues that artificial borders do not inherently produce prolonged or transnational conflict. Instead, they become persistently violent when post-independence states fail to establish inclusive, legitimate, and regionally responsive governance, particularly in peripheral border areas. The study tests whether border artificiality alone explains conflict, or whether its effects depend on early governance failure. Using a sample of 29 postcolonial states, the analysis combines geospatial and statistical methods to assess patterns of violence near international borders. Conflict data from ACLED and GTD are used to calculate the proportion of militant violence, terrorist activity, and social unrest occurring within 110 kilometers of borders. Border artificiality is measured using Alesina et al.’s Artificial Borders Index, while regime quality is proxied by 25-year averages of the Polity2 index. Original codings of early national and border-region governance failure are also introduced. Results show that artificial borders are associated with high levels of terrorism, militant violence, and unrest, but only when early border governance is weak. Regression models confirm that artificiality alone is not a significant driver, but its interaction with governance failure is both statistically and substantively robust. The findings suggest that institutional weakness, in addition to border design, better explains postcolonial border-zone violence.
Bio:
Arshiya is a senior at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, majoring in Political Science with a concentration in International Relations and pursuing certificates in Global Security and European Union Studies. She is also minoring in Legal Studies and Business. A recipient of the Jeremiah Sullivan Undergraduate Research Award, Arshiya has been deeply engaged in research since her sophomore year. She has worked with Dr. Mayung Jung Kim on her project examining international law and exile decisions. In the upcoming semester, she will be working as a Research Assistant with Professor Don Casler from the Department of Political Science, who is also a Faculty Affiliate at the Program in Arms Control & Domestic and International Security (ACDIS). In addition to her academic research, Arshiya serves as a Research Ambassador with the Office of Undergraduate Research, where she mentors and assists fellow undergraduates in pursuing research opportunities. Her scholarly interests center on global security, international law, and transnational conflict dynamics, and she hopes to pursue a master’s degree in International Security following graduation.
Matvei Shevchenko, B.A. in International Relations and Economics
No Peace, No Illusion: Russia's Long-Term Confrontation Strategy with the Critical Weakness of European Security Frameworks
Abstract:
This research argues that Russia is not pursuing peace, but preparing for a sustained confrontation with NATO and Europe. At the core is NATO’s Article 5—the alliance’s collective defense clause—which commits members to act in response to an armed attack “as deemed necessary.” That ambiguity has created a structural gap Moscow systematically exploits through hybrid operations designed to test NATO’s limits, erode allied unity, and undermine deterrence without crossing the threshold for direct military engagement. Peace, in the Western sense—built on mutual restraint and cooperation—is not part of Moscow’s strategic horizon.
Using Russian- and Ukrainian-language sources, doctrinal texts, and open-source intelligence, the project traces the ideological consolidation of Putin’s regime, its historical pattern of revisionism, and its calculated use of hybrid warfare, populism, and economic militarization. It examines conventional force expansion alongside peace negotiations used as strategic deception, and it projects the risks of leaving NATO’s vulnerabilities unaddressed.
The central questions are: How does Russia exploit ambiguity in collective defense? What drives its long-term revisionist strategy? And what structural changes are needed to prevent escalation? The goal is not only to map Russia’s integrated political, military, and economic approach, but also to develop actionable policy recommendations to strengthen Europe’s security architecture against a determined and prepared adversary.
Bio:
Matvei is a senior at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, double-majoring in International Relations and Economics and pursuing a Certificate in Global Security. As a 2025 Jeremiah Sullivan Fellow with ACDIS, my research focuses on European security, NATO’s deterrent posture, and Russian hybrid warfare. A native speaker of Russian and Ukrainian, I work extensively with primary-source materials to inform my analysis. My academic work includes in-depth projects on deterrence strategy, the weaponization of energy, economic coercion, hybrid warfare, and the exploitation of institutional ambiguity in international frameworks. Beginning this fall, I will join a faculty-led research team examining foreign policy decision-making during major crises. I aim to contribute to policy development in areas such as arms control, hybrid threats, and deterrence.